A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
